Storbritannias energiminister Kwasi Kwarteng taler under klimatoppmøtet i Glasgow den 4. november 2021. Foto: Alastair Grant / AP / NTB.

Seks millioner husholdninger i Storbritannia risikerer brudd i strømforsyningen til vinteren hvis Russland reduserer energieksporten til Europa ytterligere, viser analyser fra det britiske regjeringsapparatet som er omtalt av Sunday Times.

Dermed kan det bli aktuelt med månedlange perioder med rasjonering av strøm til bestemte tider på døgnet, skriver den engelske avisen:

A minister said the briefing suggested that electricity could have to be rationed for up to six million homes at the start of next year, mostly at peaks in the morning and evening. The curbs could last more than a month, causing energy prices to rise again and leaving GDP lower than forecast for years to come.

For å motvirke problemer av denne typen har energiminister Kwasi Kwarteng bedt Storbritannias tre gjenværende kullkraftverk om ikke å legge ned som planlagt innen 2024.

Hinkley Point B, a nuclear power station in Somerset, could also be given an 18-month extension. The plant, which is nearly 50 years old, was due to be decommissioned this summer. Britain buys less than 4 per cent of its gas directly from Russia but is connected to European markets. The EU typically gets 40 per cent of its gas from Russia and its members have continued paying it hundreds of millions of euros a day since the invasion.

Britiske myndigheter tar også høyde for at Russland kan bruke energivåpenet for alt det er verdt:

Officials are also said to have drawn up an even bleaker strategy in the event of Russia cutting off gas entirely to the EU. It suggests that energy blackouts could start in December and last for three months, with blackouts both on weekdays and weekends.

I det britiske regjeringsapparatet er man ikke desto mindre trygg på at øyriket er bedre rustet til å hanskes med en energikrise enn EU:

A Whitehall source said: “As a responsible government it is right that we plan for every single extreme scenario, however unlikely. Britain is well prepared for any supply disruptions. Unlike EU countries, our North Sea gas reserves are being pumped out at full pelt, Norwegian rigs are directly connected into the UK, and we have the second-largest LNG import infrastructure in Europe — whereas Germany has none. Given the EU’s historic dependence on Putin’s gas, the winter could be very hard for countries on the Continent.”